The AI Future from First Principles: A Thought Experiment — Understanding from a Computational Irreducibility Lens

Satya Prakash Buddhavarapu
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This blog delves into the gradual integration of AI into society, likening it to the slow burn of the Industrial Revolution, emphasizing the need for patience and computational power to navigate computational irreducibility while highlighting the importance of human agency in guiding AI towards human-centric outcomes.
March 22, 2024

The Dawn of AI: Not a Big Bang, But a Sunrise

The AI revolution is more of a slow burn than a fireworks show. It’s not going to explode onto the scene; it’s creeping up on us, kind of like how the Industrial Revolution did. We’re talking about weaving AI into the fabric of our messy, human-centric world, which is no small feat.

It’s not just about having the brainpower (or, more accurately, the computing power) to develop these AI systems. It’s about making sure they can play nice in the complex playground of human interactions and societal norms. So, buckle up; we’re in for a gradual but monumental shift.

The Maze of Computational Irreducibility

Here’s where things get spicy: computational irreducibility. Imagine trying to predict the flow of city traffic without actually watching the cars go by. Sounds tough, right? That’s because it is. Stephen Wolfram clued us into the fact that some problems are so complex, you just have to run them to see what happens.

AI, with its intricate dance through human interactions, is one such problem. We can’t just guess how AI will behave in the wild; we need to observe it, test it, and probably scratch our heads a lot in the process. This means a ton of computing power and patience will be our best friends as we integrate AI into society.

The Staying Power of Horizontal SaaS Platforms

Given the beast that is computational irreducibility, custom software development is like shooting an arrow while blindfolded. You might have a general idea of where you want it to go, but good luck hitting the bullseye without seeing.

This is where Horizontal SaaS platforms will be the mainstay, offering the tools and flexibility needed to tailor solutions to the unique beast that is each company’s workflow.

As AI evolves, these platforms with Human steering will be crucial in bridging the gap between human needs and AI capabilities, ensuring that the future of work is both efficient and, importantly, human-friendly and allow for the seamless integration of AI into diverse business processes, ensuring that the future of work is not only efficient but also deeply intertwined with human-centric workflows.

The Good and Bad of Progress

As AI tech gets cheaper and more efficient, it promises a future where goods and services could rain down like manna from heaven. But there’s a catch: we’re not quite at the point where energy is free, and until then, the financial toll of developing and deploying AI will be hefty.

Like Sam Altman said “Computation will be likely be the most important resource”. The more resources you have, the faster you can develop and deploy AI, shaping the future in your image. But it’s not just about having the biggest computer; it’s about having the materials and energy to support this digital infrastructure.

Just like building a highway requires concrete and land, building AI requires rare earth metals and a whole lot of electricity. Nations are now in a race to secure these resources, setting the stage for a new era of geopolitical strategy.

A World Powered by AI

The shift to an AI-powered society isn’t going to happen overnight. It’s more of a slow dance, with each step forward carefully considered to minimize toes being stepped on.

This period of transformation will see old industries revamped and new ones birthed from the ashes of automation. This transition might ruffle some feathers, displacing jobs and industries before the new, AI-driven economy finds its footing. It’s a classic case of “it’s always darkest before the dawn,” with the promise of a more efficient world on the horizon, if we can navigate the choppy waters of change.

The Essence of Human Agency in an AI World

As we venture further into the AI-driven future, the spotlight turns to a uniquely human attribute: agency. This isn’t just about the tasks we perform but the choices we make, the goals we set, and the values we uphold. In a landscape increasingly dominated by AI, human agency becomes our guiding star. It’s what directs AI’s immense capabilities towards outcomes that reflect our shared values and aspirations.

While AI can optimize and execute, it’s human agency that decides the “why” and the “what for.” This interplay between human intention and AI’s execution is where the future of innovation and progress lies, ensuring that as our tools grow more powerful, they remain aligned with the essence of what it means to be human.

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